The Future of Plastics Will Determine the Future of Oil Demand
Posted on April 30, 2024 by DrRossH in GeneralSource: The Future of Plastics Will Determine the Future of Oil Demand | Markets Insider
The UN is this week discussing the future of plastic—or so it would seem on the surface. The UN Global Plastics Treaty negotiations aim to curb plastic pollution by essentially curbing the use of plastics globally. And they look set to fail.
The goal is certainly noble. Reducing the massive amount of plastic waste that we produce on a daily basis to keep it from ending up in rivers, oceans and, according to some researchers, our bodies. Achieving this goal, however, is quite another matter.
Plastics, especially single-use plastics in packaging, has been instrumental in making a lot of products more affordable to more people. And while electronics, for instance, can certainly be sold in non-plastic packaging, fresh fruit, vegetables, and meat are another matter—and expensive matter.
The report above cites BP predictions that plastics will come to account for as much as 95% of oil demand growth in the two decades to 2040, which echoes a lot of other forecasts for oil demand prospects. Indeed, plastics are widely seen as the biggest driver of oil demand in the future, although we might end up surprised at how long demand from the transport sector endures in view of the latest developments in EV markets.

How many people today grab a takeaway coffee cup from the local cafe to drink on the go? We don’t know, but the number must be enormous.. Most every one of the above have a plastic top that will last 100s of years. Some cafes still use plastic cups that last a similar time. Is 10 minutes of coffee worth 100s of years of trash?
These items can be seen littering our gutters and on our streets all over the place. If they were all cardboard, they would still be littered, but they would, at least, be gone in a short time.
They do not need to be made of plastic.
On the way home from the gym last week, a distance of about 1 km (1/2 mile), I counted the items of plastic litter on the curb as I walked. In that short distance I counted 63 pieces of plastic litter. Plastic drink bottles, bottle tops, candy wrappers, plastic film, polystyrene fragments etc. That seemed to be a lot to me. I guess it is a generational thing. Our parents would have been horrified to see that amount, whereas it seems to go unnoticed by our youth of today. In another 20 years how many pieces will there be on this stretch, -- 200? What will today’s youth think of that new amount then when they are older? Will their children be so readily accepting of a higher amount of litter?
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